6 posts tagged “wwo”

The old world dies, and with it the old ways. We will re-make it as it  should be - must be! Immortal!
-- Lord Dread

Overview

In 1947 a group of men created one of the most poignant and lasting symbols of mankind's destruction,  the "Doomsday clock".  Set originally at 7 minutes, it has shifted 19 times in its history with the latest change - January 17, 2007, changing it to 11:55 PM.   Coupled with the omnipresent threat of nuclear annihilation; climate change has been added to the list of ways that humanity may finally manage to off itself.   Faced with still increasing demands with decreasing supply, it's fair to say that we'll move that minute hand a bit closer to midnight yet.  But that's neither here nor there - assuming we don't get button happy, we'll need to survive this charlie foxtrot of a mess we've gotten ourselves into.

We've all spent the past few months discussing survival.  Embracing the ideas of community is certainly a good place to start.   Community Supported Agriculture is another good win as it helps insure and stabilize local food production.  In general, conservation is good.   The greatest danger will be the marketing and feel good scams that convince people they are doing something good when in actuality they're still contributing or exacerbating the problem.  Akin to the plethora of diet fads that prey upon the desperate and lazy, the real solution doesn't require a $15/month plan or an appearance on Dr. Phil.  It does however require that you take some responsibility, exercise willpower, get off the couch, and stop eating so damn much.

Electricity Conservation

Lets ignore the infrastructure problems for the moment as they are large and varied and in part are caused if your state has separated  transmission and generation capabilities in a deregulation scheme.  What we will however focus on is some common things and how to address them.

1.  Turn your computer off when you're not at home.   In addition to the fact that its drawing unneeded power just sitting there, it is also generating heat which means that your air conditioner is going to kick in that much sooner.
2.  Replace your CRT with a LCD monitor.   CRT's on average use approximately 140 watts of power.  LCD's - 25.
3. The air conditioner is the enemy.   If you have your house set to 72 or lower, you are doing something very very wrong.  Try closing your blinds to block out the sun.  Try installing ceiling fans to increase air flow in a room.   If your problem is that you need the weight of bedsheets at night, look into   http://www.bedfan.com/ or some similar product.    As weird as they seem, my wife and I did pick one up last week and so far have been pleasantly surprised.  Your air conditioner is roughly 65% of your summer electric bill.  Anything you can do to reduce your dependence upon it is a BIG win to your pocket book.
4.  Bonus do-gooder points:  Look into green sources of power - http://www.eere.energy.gov/greenpower/ available to you.

Transportation and Fuel

I'm a bit paralyzed here.   But it's time to bring up why I hate corn.  Corn quite basically, is evil.   It's bad enough that it's in 80% of EVERYTHING in the supermarket.    We have to investigate alternatives to oil.  Said solution will not be corn based ethanol, regardless of what Uncle Sam would like you to believe.    When we discuss fuel, it is critical to understand the concept of EROEI (Energy Returned On Energy Invested).  For something to be effective, we want the highest return possible on our investment.   Oil is rated somewhere around a 10:1 ratio (For every 1 unit of energy invested, you receive 10, thus a net gain of 9).   Corn Ethanol is somewhere around 1.3:1 and sugarcane based 6:1 (which is what Brazil uses).  Corn is a non-starter and there's no reason for us to continue to support it other than Iowa and the rest of the mid-west are holding politicians hostage.  

The biggest problem I have right now with hybrids (and lets not talk about the asinine concept of the Hybrid SUV) hinges upon this.   Sure, on first glance both Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs) are significantly more efficient than the current Internal Combustion Engine.  But what about the power required to create the batteries and fuel cells.  What about the pollution generated?  Are we simply shifting the pollution from the tailpipe to another area?   That's not a solution, that's a shell game, and in their rush to proclaim hybrids as the saviors of humanity a lot of people (including our government) seem to be forgetting to ask these questions.   With continued improvements in the chemical battery + regenerative braking/flywheel technology, my guess is that BEVs are most likely our best bet for the near term as improvements in public transportation are made.

Resources
Listed below are a few of the sites I've referenced or read in the past.   The list is by no means conclusive, nor should it be taken that I in fact agree with everything.   There's a lot of information on the Internet, some of it is good, some of it bad.  Even Wikipedia has a few articles that are little more than poorly referenced propaganda blogs.   

Energy In A Post-Peak World - http://www.321energy.com/editorials/simmons/simmons052207/show052207.html
Net Energy List - http://www.eroei.com/eroei/evaluations/net_energy_list/
Saving Electricity - http://michaelbluejay.com/electricity/general.html
Biofuels - http://petroleum.berkeley.edu/papers/Biofuels/NRRethanol.2005.pdf
Response to Biofuel - http://www.biodiesel.org/members/membersonly/files/pdf/071305_Pimentel_Study_NBB_Detailed_Response.pdf
Rescuing a Planet Under Stress - http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/PB2/Contents.htm
My Gas Spreadsheet - http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pjxy8z40NhCVnmTePXkogZA&pli=1

Conclusion

There are no easy answers to what the future holds.  Conservation and sustainability must become a higher priority for those of us in the States; regardless of what alternative source of energy we find, none are as easily plentiful nor efficient as oil once was.  As part of these priorities,  a consolidated effort must occur to reduce food miles, though even that must be done with care and an awareness of the total environmental impact, not simply the ability to crow about a 25% reduction on a Powerpoint slide.  Focused research on alternative fuels and the means to implement the new infrastructure required will take time and money - money that must be spent quickly and wisely.  Protectionist tariffs, anti-competitive subsidies, and pork barrel politics must be dealt with for the benefit of the country as opposed to the protection of the status quo.  

Good luck everyone.  While 8TSOC must end, I do hope that your personal struggle does not.   I'm never quite sure where I stand on the phrase 'a single person can make a difference', - I tend to view it as little more than feelgood marketing. I do however most definitely believe in that the best person to make a difference in your own life is yourself.  Go out and make your life and your world better.
 

At times, I can't help but feel that if the suburbanite + self-sufficiency contingent had their way the cities would be festering holes of decay, sealed off by the National Guard and turned into real life versions Lud.  There's been an awful amount of hatred of cities thrown about over the past few months as every possible and imagined negative aspect has been highlighted and laid upon  the urban doorstep. That's not what this is about though.

Sure, property crime is up.  Yes, demonstrations in the streets are becoming more and more frequent as people demand solutions from their elected leaders.  People being evicted from their homes and having trouble making ends meet.  Losing their jobs because they can't afford gas.  Going hungry because they had to get gas or pay the electricity bill or whatever.  But you know what, that's everywhere and when, and if its more noticeable now, it's in part because we're looking a little harder and maybe a little more aware of the world around us.

That's a bit of what's been sticking in my craw during these past few months.  I recycle.  I specifically buy green generated power.  I walk to the grocery store, the local bar, the local restaurants, the library, and when it opens, the farmers market. I buy local and organic whenever possible.  Except for my job, I literally have nowhere that requires me to drive.   For gods sake, I've even used the same travel mug twice a day for a year to get my coffee from The Coffee Shop That Will Not Be Named (in a pinch), and whenever possible from the TWO local coffee shops that are in walking distance to me and that procure their beans from a local distributor. But nobody wants to talk about that.

Instead, there is this marked tendency to rush forward to embrace despair and fall over themselves to be the first to proclaim the apocalypse.  I can understand that to some extent.  Certainly, there have been nights where having gone out and witnessed the remains of someone's dreams that I've drank more than I should to numb myself to the plights of my fellow man.  But rather than continuing to focus on the negative, maybe it's time we as a community as a whole tried to re-focus on finding the positive and if there are problems focus on positing a solution or a way to deal with the problem rather than simply allowing ourselves to continue to wallow in our own destructive self-pity.  Falling into despair  is the easy part of all of this.  Hope is certainly more tricky.

* This originally started as a response to Pachinko_Chance and it got a bit lengthy.

If this is what our leadership considers to be a solution, then we are well and truly screwed.  We need leadership, not photo ops of pols knowing what the "common man" is going through.

The irony of B'more starting such a "festive" week with a ethanol tanker accident will be hysterically funny after another double of scotch.  Until then, it's just depressing as it will do little more than; and excuse the pun, add fuel to the fire. 

Scared Terrified of the possibility of an outage, even now people continue to swarm upon gas stations at the slightest rumor that a gas shipment has come in. Topping off tanks unneccessarily, they create  a self-fulfilling prophecy of gas shortages and fuel shortfalls.   God forbid anyone learned a damn thing from Katrina.  Still, it's hard to blame people as shortfalls and gas price fluctuations continue to occur on a more than frequent basis; but at the same time, people are worsening the situation on the whole.  

I really hope that http://fooworks.com/us-troops-seen-around-alberta-oil-fields/ is the Qubecois separatists attempting a fast one. If US forces have attempted to forcibly annex a portion of Canada then we might as well push that great shiny red candy-like button - it'll be cleaner and quicker than what is about to follow.

From - http://ottawa.usembassy.gov/content/can_usa/didyouknow.pdf

In 2005, Canada supplied about 13% of the United States imports of oil, 85% of its imports of natural gas [jwiv - roughly 20% of the US total demand], and virtual all of its imports of electric power . . . [jwiv: ~43Million Megawatt hours http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epat6p3.html].

What does that mean in real terms?  Remember that east coast blackout a few years back that lasted a few days?  Imagine a longer term and more permanent version of that.

Politically, NATO relations - already strained by Afghanistan and Iraq will more than likely be tipped into a downward death spiral ending in either the complete dissolution of the organization of the removal of the US from it.

Going without saying, the UN will attempt to inflict immediate trade embargos and sanctions against the US, but those will be stymied for a time by the the US blocking them with its veto on the security council.  Ultimately, the US would have to be forced off of the security council in order for the resolutions to go through.   Individual countries however will seek to apply pressure on their own initiative.

More speculative

Probable, but not definitive

• Institution of the draft to bolster troop force levels that are currently depleted by Iraq and Afghanistan.
• Large scale riots of the US population

• Seizure of US owned, European based assets (financial and military)

• With the US/Europe fully distracted by a three front war and significant internal strife, SOMEBODY is going to invade Israel.